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Will These Ten Predictions Come True?

I haven’t done predictions in a while, and I’ve had a few on my mind lately. Here we go:

  1. President Biden will not be reelected. His decline is evident to those paying attention. Notice during rare interviews, he does not complete his answers clearly. Notice during any, repeat any, incidental response to the press, his words are no longer annunciated. The rigors of the campaign will reveal.
  2. Former President Trump will not be elected. He may well win the Republican nomination, but he cannot win the general again. While a plurality believed in his policies, his personal flaws and legal challenges are too much to overcome. He remains in the race because he can fundraise to support his legal defense.
  3. Governor DeSantis will need to reinvent himself to have any chance. He continues to take on issues based on pure political calculation vs. belief. His likeability factors are extremely low.
  4. Once again, an FY24 continuing resolution will resolve before the end of this calendar year. 2024 congressional elections on the immediate horizon will influence that behavior.
  5. Blockchain technology will change how business is done. I’ve said this before. Too many people confuse cryptocurrency with blockchain. They are not the same thing. Blockchain allows immutability of data. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) demand such a need. See next.
  6. As AI proliferates, the truth it presents us will need validation. ChatGPT and Chat4 are the very leading edge of data being replicated many times over. Think of the results of Wikipedia, Alexa, Siri, and Google…often it produces the wrong answer even after being with us for two decades.
  7. Russia will lose to Ukraine before the 2024 election. The end state will include Putin leaving office either by death or exile. The recent May Day celebration in Moscow featured a single tank; in prior years there were thousands.
  8. Speaker McCarthy will step down after the 2024 elections. At a recent photo op of living speakers (Gingrich, Ryan, Boehner, Pelosi, and McCarthy), it’s difficult not to notice Pelosi outlasted them all by a wide margin. It’s a job with peculiar challenges.
  9. Budget pressures borne of political necessity will drive a return of the Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) funding account. International challenges will make a decrease in defense budgeting impractical. OCO funds are treated as “off-budget” and don’t count against debt and deficit calculations.
  10. The four Multi-Mission Combat Ships (MMCS) currently under construction at Marinette Marine for Saudi Arabia will not deliver to Saudi Arabia. They will either become US Navy ships (as with the four KIDD of the 1980s built for Iran but kept by the US) or will be sold to allies.

What are your predictions? You don’t have to be right all the time when predicting. But can you make a case for your positions? Do you think about the future or wait for it to come to you?

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