Ten Predictions for the Next Twelve Months

I regularly publish predictions. You seem to love them if only to reply with your agreement or disagreement. The image is a hat tip to Johnny Carson’s Carnac the Magnificent.

Executives, investors, and policymakers will increasingly confuse announcements with outcomes. Some of the most expensive decisions of the next year will be made in response to things that were announced, celebrated, and repeated—but never fully executed.

As we reach the midpoint of 2026, several trends appear clear to me. The last twelve months were dominated by announcements, executive action, market enthusiasm, and ambitious promises. Some headlines already reached their half-life.

Here are ten developments I believe are more likely than most people realize.

1. Donald Trump Will Not Complete His Second Term

Presidential health remains one of Washington’s least transparent subjects. Age, health, and political realities suggest the possibility is significantly higher than most observers are willing to discuss publicly. Lacking medical evidence, I base this on observed behaviors and language.

2. The FY27 Continuing Resolution Will Extend into March 2027

Congress increasingly governs through delay rather than resolution. Too many political issues are pressing on the appropriations process simultaneously, any of which create leverage for either side. A change in congressional control after the midterms will make a prolonged CR politically preferable to a negotiated appropriations package this calendar year.

3. The United States and China Will Move Toward Strategic Accommodation, Not Military Conflict

The prevailing assumption in Washington, DC, and the pentagon in particular, is that conflict with China is becoming inevitable. I believe economic interdependence, mutual vulnerability, and global market realities point toward managed competition rather than direct confrontation. The biggest surprise of the next decade may not be conflict—it may be cooperation.

4. Deal Team Six Will Not Survive Its Founders

Many reform movements are powered by a handful of individuals willing to challenge institutional inertia. When those individuals depart, the movement often loses momentum. Institutions endure. Reform movements rarely do.

Historically, major Cabinet turnover follows the midterms. This administration is experiencing significant churn before them, with several high-profile departures and key positions already operating under acting leadership. That suggests the phenomenon is broader than any single personality.

By the end of 2027, many of the architects of Deal Team Six will be gone. The movement may continue, but increasingly in the hands of institutional operators rather than its original disruptors.

5. Congress Will Continue to Reclaim Power from the Executive Branch

The Constitution has a remarkable self-correcting mechanism. Congress tolerates executive action until it begins to feel excluded. Self-preservation is a powerful force in politics. The protection of power held in elected office will prove to be the opening phase of a broader congressional reassertion of authority. Watch the actions of the newly identified YOLO (you only live once) caucus who have lost primaries and have nothing to lose by bucking their parties between now and the end of the year.

6. The Next Gold Rush Will Be Energy, Not AI

Most of the defense industry is focused on artificial intelligence, autonomy, and software. Yet every military capability ultimately depends on power generation, storage, distribution, resilience, and supply chains. Batteries, rare earths, grid resilience, power management, data storage centers, and energy security may prove more consequential than many of today’s headline technologies.

7. The Pentagon’s Biggest Constraint Will Be Talent

The acquisition workforce, engineering workforce, and cleared workforce were already under pressure before the disruptions of the last two years. Money can buy equipment. It cannot quickly create experienced people. Look for service providers to be brought back to fill the gaps.

Further, we are quietly narrowing the pool of people eligible to reach the most senior ranks. Every organization needs a reason for its best people to stay. Remove that incentive and the outcome is predictable: the people with the most options will exercise them first.

8. AI Will Create a New Digital Aristocracy

The limiting factor will not be artificial intelligence itself. It will be access—to models, computing power, data, security approvals, and the resources required to deploy them effectively.

AI tokens and compute credits will become the defining currency of the AI aristocracy.

9. Industry Will Re-Discover That Speed Is Not the Same Thing as Capacity

Executive orders can move quickly. Press releases can move instantly. Industry adapted quickly, but institutions cannot. Contracting offices, legal reviews, workforce shortages, contracting capacity constraints, and appropriations delays remain stubborn realities. Faster executive decisions do not automatically produce faster outcomes.

10. The Most Expensive Mistakes of 2027 Will Begin With a Headline

Announcements, executive actions, investor enthusiasm, and media narratives are moving faster than institutions can execute. Many organizations will discover that attention is not execution, enthusiasm is not funding, and visibility is not victory. Some of the costliest decisions made over the next year will be based on things that were announced—but never fully delivered.

If there is a common thread running through these predictions, it is that institutions move more slowly than headlines.

That is not a criticism. It is simply how large systems behave.

Leaders, investors, and executives are increasingly rewarded for reacting quickly. Yet the organizations that outperform over time are rarely the ones that react first. They are the ones that correctly distinguish between a signal and a story.

The purpose of predictions is not to be right.

The purpose is to examine our assumptions while there is still time to act on them.

As you look at the next twelve months, ask yourself:

Which of your assumptions are based on something that has happened—and which are based on something that has merely been announced?

What Am I Reading?

I recently finished The Creative Act: A Way of Being by Rick Rubin, and it may be one of the more thought-provoking books I’ve read on creativity, leadership, and personal growth.

Rubin’s credentials are remarkable. Over four decades, he shaped the work of artists as different as Johnny Cash, Metallica, Jay-Z, Red Hot Chili Peppers, and Adele. What struck me is that none of these artists approached their craft the same way. Rubin’s genius isn’t imposing a process or formula. His role helps each artist discover the conditions that allowed their own genius to emerge.

One of the book’s central themes is that creativity is not limited to artists. It’s a way of seeing. Rubin argues that many breakthroughs come not from force, discipline, or expertise, but from curiosity, openness, and the willingness to notice something others overlook. History is filled with examples. Gunpowder was discovered by alchemists searching for immortality. The adhesive behind Post-it Notes emerged from what was initially viewed as a failed experiment. Penicillin was discovered because a scientist noticed something unusual in a contaminated petri dish. The opportunity existed before the breakthrough. Someone simply had to recognize it.

As I’ve gotten older, I find myself reflecting on how much my own thinking was shaped by years in a highly structured, rules-based military environment. When I counsel active-duty members preparing for transition, I often remind them that it’s difficult to appreciate how much that operating system has shaped their worldview. The military rewards discipline, process, and adherence to proven methods. Those traits remain valuable, but they can also narrow our willingness to explore ideas that arrive incomplete, unconventional, or difficult to categorize.

One observation from the book that stayed with me involves a seed that fails to germinate. Our instinct is often to assume it was a bad seed. Rubin suggests a different possibility: perhaps the combination of sun, water, soil, and timing wasn’t right for that particular seed. The lesson extends far beyond gardening. In business and leadership, we are often quick to dismiss ideas, people, or opportunities because they did not immediately flourish under the conditions we provided. Sometimes the issue isn’t the seed. It’s the environment.

For senior executives, that may be the most valuable takeaway. We spend much of our careers evaluating outcomes, performance, and results. Rubin encourages us to pay more attention to conditions. Before deciding an idea won’t work, an employee lacks potential, or a strategy has failed, it may be worth asking whether we created the environment necessary for success.

The Creative Act is not really a book about music. It’s a book about attention. It challenges us to become more aware of our own habits, assumptions, and self-imposed constraints. For leaders whose success has been built on experience and judgment, Rubin offers a useful reminder: sometimes the next breakthrough arrives not as a fully formed solution, but as a faint signal that only becomes visible if we’re willing to let it develop.