Leaders are expected to interpret their environments and make decisions with imperfect information. Some leaders are quite good at it, while others continue to wait for an additional insight that might get them closer to a mythically higher confidence. As an exercise to stretch your thinking, I ask you to consider five things that you believe you can reasonably predict. It’s not about being right or wrong, but about having the confidence to put your prediction out there. Here are a few of mine as of today:

Some Predictions

• The defense topline will decline by 10% before the 2024 election.

• Small business set-aside goals will be missed in FY23.

• The House will flip control after the 2022 elections. The Senate will not flip.

• The halls of Congress will not re-open to the public. A security protocol to enter buildings will align with what is required in other federal buildings.

• You have a bigger personnel issue in your company than you know as the workforce is completely rethinking the parameters and conditions of work, and money won’t fix it. Failure to invest in your workforce is a wedge.

• Facebook will be broken up as a regulated communications platform.

• An online business platform will replace LinkedIn as LinkedIn continues to look more like Facebook.

I’m happy to discuss any of them as you like. I look forward to hearing a few of yours!

On September 15th, I released my second book, Make Your Move – Charting Your Post-Military Career. This book shares the story of my career to date, and is written to support military professionals who are facing a career transition. All proceeds from the book will go to the Freedom Fighter Outdoors, a charitable organization supporting injured veterans. You can read more and order your copy of Make Your Move – Charting Your Post-Military Career here.