I spent part of this past week at Xponential Europe in Germany. The conversations did not introduce entirely new ideas, but they reinforced something increasingly visible across defense, technology, and policy communities:

The pace of change is accelerating faster than the institutions designed to manage it. Ukraine, Russia, and Iran adapted, imperfectly, in the face of existential crisis.

The United States is not standing still. The Department of Defense has introduced new innovation pathways such as DIU, AFWERX, SOFWERX, and the Replicator Initiative to accelerate adoption of commercial technology. Introduction of a new culture at the top willing to take bold action with broad strokes is evident to all. The bipartisan Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution (PPBE) Commission recommended reforms to improve agility in defense resource allocation; most were dismissed.

Yet the deeper pattern emerging beneath the headlines is this:

We are attempting to increase speed without fully redesigning the system that governs how speed occurs. Congress will also need to adapt if we are to capitalize on what speed can improve.

Speed is no longer simply an efficiency metric.

Speed is becoming a strategic variable.

Urgency is a feeling. Speed is design.

Urgency shows up when the deadline gets close. Speed shows up months earlier in the form of decision rights, contracting pathways, and a team that knows what it is allowed to do. If your organization only gets “fast” when it gets scared, it is not fast. It is reactive.

The Quiet Transformation of Lower-End Warfare

Much of the visible conversation about defense modernization focuses on large platforms: aircraft, ships, missile systems, and space assets. The bloat of the requirements process repeatedly slows or sinks large programs.

But the faster transformation is occurring at the lower end of the capability spectrum:

• AI-enabled targeting tools
• Unmanned ISR platforms
• Autonomous logistics systems
• Low-cost precision strike capability
• Rapid software iteration cycles

Palantir’s Maven capability demonstrates how software-driven decision tools can compress intelligence timelines and improve targeting workflows. AI-enabled decision support systems are increasingly integrated into operational environments, reflecting a broader shift toward software-defined capability.

RAND has noted that rapid technology iteration is becoming a defining feature of modern conflict environments.

Software evolves continuously. Capability can now change faster than budget cycles. Much faster.

The Vasa Problem

History provides occasional warnings about institutional incentives.

In 1628, Sweden launched the warship Vasa, designed to demonstrate national strength and technological superiority. The ship carried extraordinary armament relative to its hull stability.

It sailed less than a mile before capsizing.

The failure was not due to lack of expertise. It was the result of pressure to produce a highly visible symbol of power that exceeded structural constraints.

Systems optimized for signaling can accumulate fragility faster than resilience.

The lesson is not naval architecture. It is institutional design.

The modern version of Vasa is a project that is optimized for signaling. Perfect slides. Perfect promises. Then the project hits sea state and reality takes the helm. If you want resilience, build for stress, not applause.

The Middle

Much of the friction in acquisition reform occurs neither at the level of innovation nor at the level of presidential direction.

It occurs in what might be described as The Middle.

• Program managers
• Contracting officers
• Requirements writers
• Legal reviewers
• Budget analysts

These professionals operate within statutory constraints and compliance structures that limit maneuver space.

GAO reports have repeatedly highlighted how complex acquisition rules and fragmented oversight processes slow delivery of capability.

Simply removing chapters of the DFARS sounds like a satisfying approach, but risks our relearning old lessons of risk, safety and waste.

Speed initiatives often stall not because of resistance, but because of ambiguity about permissible action. The people who implement the process must understand the process.

Most “slow” organizations are not slow because people are lazy. They are slow because nobody wants to be the person who guessed wrong.

Speed requires cover. Clear intent from leadership. Clear funding lanes from budget. When those are missing, The Middle does what it is trained to do: minimize risk. It’s rational behavior inside an ambiguous system.

Budget Structure Is Strategy

The PPBE system governs how resources are allocated across all funding accounts such as research, procurement, and operations accounts. Perhaps the account nomenclature itself is ripe for renovation.

Continuing Resolutions frequently delay program starts and disrupt modernization timelines. GAO has documented how funding instability contributes to schedule delays and increased program cost.

The PPBE Commission has recommended portfolio-level flexibility and faster resource allocation authorities, but implementation has been uneven to date. The dust will take a while to settle but the shift to portfolio management holds promise in reorienting ownership within the process.

Budget rigidity shapes capability timelines. A multi-year development and approval process doesn’t serve us in an era where designs sometimes need to move from blank slate to prototype in weeks or months. Ukraine has multiple examples within drone warfare that meet this new expectation.

The structure must be capable of the required speed.

Software Is Changing the Logic of Advantage

Software companies develop products using iterative methodologies such as Scrum rather than sequential waterfall models.

Waterfall assumes requirements stability.
Scrum assumes requirements evolution.

Traditional acquisition structures reflect waterfall logic.
Modern software capability reflects iterative logic.

When capability evolves continuously, acquisition structures designed for static requirements become misaligned with operational reality.

Your phone is updated overnight while you sleep.

Legal and Policy Friction

Emerging debates around AI model use in national security environments highlight the intersection between policy control and innovation speed.

As AI capabilities evolve rapidly, legal interpretation increasingly shapes which tools can be deployed within national security environments.

Policy friction becomes part of innovation tempo. The recent decision to dismiss Anthropic out of hand is troubling and not in the long-term interest of national security. A compromise was within reach.

Seeing Beyond The Headlines

Ukraine, Iran, AI-enabled targeting, unmanned systems, directed procurement, and budget reform debates appear as discrete developments.

Collectively, they signal structural transition…

• Software-centric capability
• Shorter iteration cycles
• Portfolio-based acquisition models
• Greater tolerance for partial solutions
• Integration of commercial technology

Time itself is becoming a domain of competition.

Speed is a Weapon, Speed is Life

These are maxims of warfare that have stood the test of time.

We are moving faster than before. But incremental acceleration inside legacy structures may not be sufficient.

Speed must become:

• A budget principle
• A leadership expectation
• A regulatory posture
• An industrial signal

The deeper story unfolding is not about any single program or administration.

It’s recognition that competitive advantage increasingly belongs to organizations that adapt their structures and authorities, not just their tools.

Speed is not about efficiency.
Speed is about relevancy. Speed is life in warfare.

Cleared Hot

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