A Special Briefing on Corporate Resilience

In a climate of profound political and economic uncertainty, the feeling of being at the mercy of forces beyond your control is palpable. With the federal government in its third-longest shutdown in modern history and the appropriations process for FY26 stalled indefinitely, depending on predictable government function is no longer a viable strategy. The warning signs—from military overextension and soaring national debt to recurring political gridlock and declining institutional trust—are not just visible; they are immediate realities.

At our recent DC Reset event in Washington, I brought together defense leaders to explore these challenges in depth and, more importantly, to stress test their own organizational resilience against the forces reshaping our industry. What emerged from those conversations was both sobering and clarifying. The findings I share here—important as they are—represent only the tip of the iceberg. The real work lies in the honest self-assessment each leader must now undertake.

History teaches us that while we cannot control the storm, we can build a more resilient ship. This moment is not about predicting the next crisis but about building the enduring strength to survive it. The illusion of stability has been replaced by the reality of discontinuous change, where crises unfold not in years or months, but in days or hours. The critical question for every leader is no longer if a crisis will occur, but how your organization will withstand it when it does.

The Golden Era We Didn’t Recognize

For most executives currently at the helm, the formative years of your careers unfolded during an era of remarkable stability and growth—a period so favorable that it may have shaped assumptions about how the world works that no longer hold true. During the DC Reset discussions, this realization emerged as a recurring theme: many of the leaders in the room had built their entire strategic frameworks during a time when the wind was consistently at their backs.

Consider the evidence: from 1975 to 2025, the U.S. economy grew nearly fourfold in real terms, the S&P 500 increased more than 64-fold, and defense spending expanded over ninefold. These are not just statistics; they represent the backdrop against which an entire generation of leaders learned to operate.

During this half-century, the disruptions that did occur—the housing bubble, the 2008 recession, defense sequestration that never fully materialized—were ultimately manageable within the existing framework. Markets recovered. Budgets stabilized. The system, while tested, held. Even when challenges emerged, the underlying trajectory remained upward. Interest rates declined from their 1980 peak of 18.9% to historic lows. Inflation, after spiking in the late 1970s and early 1980s, settled into a predictable range. The wind was, for the most part, at our backs.

But the environment is shifting in ways that are fundamentally different from past disruptions. The COVID-19 pandemic was not just another recession; it was a global systems shock that exposed the fragility of supply chains and the limits of government responsiveness. The current political dynamics are not merely partisan gridlock; they represent a breakdown in the institutional mechanisms that have historically enabled compromise and continuity. The emergence of artificial intelligence is not simply another technological advancement; it is a force that will reshape systems, processes, and competitive dynamics in ways we cannot yet fully comprehend.

What makes this moment particularly challenging is that the playbook developed during the golden era—the strategies that rewarded patience, incremental improvement, and reliance on institutional stability—may no longer be sufficient. The rules of the game are changing, and the pace of that change is accelerating. Recognizing this shift is not an exercise in pessimism; it is the first step toward building the resilience required to thrive in a more volatile world.

The New Velocity of Crisis

One of the most striking insights from the DC Reset event was the recognition that the timeline of collapse has accelerated dramatically. While the fall of historical empires like 16th-century Spain or 20th-century Britain took decades to unfold, modern disruptions are measured in hours. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 took approximately 48 hours from the first signs of trouble to complete shutdown, and the French government’s recent coalition collapse occurred in just 14 hours. Information, and the panic it can amplify, now travels at the speed of light. As the table below illustrates, the gap between “business as usual” and “everything is collapsing” has all but vanished.

This new reality demands a new approach to leadership—one centered on building unshakable resilience. Companies that survive are not those that predict the future but those prepared to handle any future that arrives.

A Client’s Story: When the Bank Stops Answering the Phone

One of our clients lived through the Silicon Valley Bank collapse firsthand. The first sign of trouble was simple and chilling: the bank stopped answering the phone. Within 48 hours, the 16th largest bank in the United States had completely shut down. Digital banking enabled instant withdrawals. Social media amplified panic at unprecedented speed. The collapse was not gradual—it was sudden and total.

This client’s company would have gone under—not due to poor management, not due to a flawed business model, not due to any operational failure on their part. They would have failed because they banked with a single institution. Their survival came down to a single government decision: the bailout. Had that decision gone differently, a well-run company would have been wiped out by a single point of failure.

The lesson is stark: How many banks does your company use? If the answer is one, you are one phone call away from an existential crisis.

The Pattern Is Already Here

The evidence that we have entered a new era is not theoretical; it is empirical. In just the last five years, we have experienced four major disruptions, each arriving faster than anticipated:

COVID-19 (March 2020) brought the global economy to a standstill in a matter of weeks. Defense contractors, accustomed to being deemed “critical infrastructure,” discovered that exemptions are not guaranteed and that supply chains built for efficiency collapse under stress.

The Semiconductor Shortage (2021-2023) crippled industries over the course of months. Companies with diversified supplier networks survived; those dependent on single sources faced production halts and billions in losses. The lesson was clear: concentration is a vulnerability.

Silicon Valley Bank (March 2023) collapsed in 48 hours, accelerated by social media and enabled by digital banking. Many defense technology startups, which had banked on stability, found themselves scrambling for liquidity—or worse, facing extinction despite having done nothing wrong operationally.

Tariffs and Supply Chain Chaos (October 2025) arrived without warning. Defense contractors woke up to a new reality of rare earth mineral shortages and cost spikes. There was no gradual adjustment period—just immediate disruption.

The pattern is unmistakable: crises are happening more frequently, unfolding more rapidly, and punishing the unprepared more severely. The question is not whether another disruption is coming, but whether your organization will be ready when it does.

So, what can we do about it?

The Three Pillars of Corporate Resilience

In an environment where you cannot control national debt, political dysfunction, or the timing of the next crisis, you can control your company’s resilience. During the DC Reset event, we worked with defense leaders to stress test their organizations against these realities. What emerged was a clear framework for building resilience, centered on three core pillars.

1. Diversification:

Reducing Single Points of Failure

Over-dependence on a single customer, especially the government, creates a critical vulnerability. But diversification extends far beyond customer relationships. It encompasses banking relationships, supplier networks, revenue streams, and program portfolios. The Silicon Valley Bank collapse demonstrated that even the most operationally sound company can be brought down by a single point of failure in its financial infrastructure.

From the DC Reset: Scaling on Promises

At the DC Reset event, one attendee shared a scenario that is playing out in real time. Their company had been taking the industry by storm, delivering high-volume orders on a single contract and scaling the business aggressively based on verbal commitments from the customer. Now, with the appropriations process stalled and the contract extension delayed, they face an immediate choice: begin laying off the workforce they just hired, or continue burning cash while waiting for a signature that may or may not come.

This is a completely knowable and avoidable scenario, yet it is one I see repeatedly, particularly among startups that prioritize growth velocity over structural resilience.

The lesson is unforgiving: verbal commitments are not contracts, and single contracts don’t build a business. Scaling based on promises rather than signed commitments is a bet that the system will function predictably. In the current environment, that is a bet you cannot afford to make.

Building relationships with multiple partners before you need them is not just a business development activity; it is a strategic imperative for survival. Ask yourself: if your largest contract were to evaporate overnight, would your company still have a foundation to stand on? If your primary bank closed its doors tomorrow, could you make payroll next week? If the verbal commitments you have scaled around never materialize into signed contracts, can you survive the contraction? These are not hypothetical questions—they are stress tests that recent history has shown to be entirely plausible.

2. Operational Resilience:

Building a Company That Survives Shocks

Profitability and cash reserves are the bedrock of resilience. In a crisis, “cash is king” is not a cliché but a lifeline. Maintaining at least six months of cash reserves provides the stability needed to weather unforeseen disruptions. This requires a ruthless focus on operational efficiency, a commitment to real profitability over mere revenue growth, and the discipline to eliminate low-value activities that drain resources. A lean, profitable, and cash-rich organization can absorb shocks that would shatter a less disciplined competitor.

The SVB collapse revealed another dimension of operational resilience: the importance of financial redundancy. Companies that maintained relationships with multiple financial institutions were able to continue operations. Those that did not found themselves entirely dependent on a government bailout—a form of dependency that is the antithesis of resilience.

3. Strategic Agility:

The Ability to Pivot Quickly

In a fast-moving crisis, the ability to make sound decisions in days, not months, is paramount. Strategic agility is built through proactive scenario planning, developing early warning systems to detect market shifts, and, most importantly, practicing the art of the pivot. Leaders must cultivate a culture where rapid, decisive action is not just encouraged but expected. The time to build your “pivot muscle” is now, not when a crisis is already at your doorstep.

When the phone stops ringing—whether it is your bank, your largest customer, or a critical supplier—you will have hours, not weeks, to respond. The organizations that survive are those that have already war-gamed these scenarios and built the decision-making infrastructure to act decisively under pressure.

Start Where You Are:

The First Step Toward Resilience

The conversations at the DC Reset event made clear that these challenges are not abstract or distant—they are immediate and personal. Every leader in that room left with a clearer understanding of their vulnerabilities and, more importantly, a framework for addressing them. But as I noted at the outset, what we explored together represents only the tip of the iceberg. The deeper work—the honest assessment of your organization’s single points of failure, the difficult decisions about resource allocation, the cultural shift toward agility—must be undertaken by each leader individually.

It is tempting to believe that meaningful change requires a massive overhaul, a complete transformation that demands months of planning and enormous resources. But that belief itself can become a barrier to action. The truth is simpler and more encouraging: the assessment is the first, and most critical, step. Understanding where you are vulnerable, where you lack redundancy, where your assumptions may be outdated—this clarity alone is transformative.

And once you have that clarity, the next step is equally straightforward: do something now that moves you closer to the outcome you want. It does not have to be perfect. It does not have to solve everything at once. It simply has to point you in the right direction.

When driving ships in formation, the moment a radio signal comes in to change position, the first thing you do is look to see that you are free to maneuver. Then you point in the direction you want to go, refining the exact course as you steady up. The same principle applies when flying planes or driving motorcycles: look in the direction you intend to go, and the vehicle will move with you. You do not need to know every detail of the route before you begin. You need to know the direction and start moving.

If improvement by one percent at a time is your mantra, then take that first step today. Ask the questions that need asking:

• How many banks does your company use? If the answer is one, what is your contingency plan?
• How dependent are we on a single customer or market segment?
• Do we possess real, defensible capabilities, or are we merely holding contract positions?
• What is our resilience plan if the rules of the game change overnight?
• Are we operating with the assumptions of the golden era, or have we adapted to the new reality?

These questions do not require a task force or a consultant engagement to answer. They require honesty, a willingness to confront uncomfortable truths, and the commitment to act on what you discover.

We are in an age of discontinuous change. The strategies that brought us here will not be sufficient for the road ahead. But building resilience does not require a heroic leap—it requires a series of deliberate steps, each one moving you closer to a more diversified, operationally sound, and strategically agile organization.

The question is not whether you will face a moment when the phone stops ringing. The question is whether you will be ready when it does. And the answer to that question begins with a single step: look in the direction you want to go, and start moving.

What Are You Reading?

I recently published my latest book, Cleared Hot: The Flight Path Beyond the Valley of Death. I often get the question “What comes next after surviving the Valley of Death?” For federal contractors, surviving the crucible between innovation and adoption is only the beginning. Too many companies treat their first contract award as the finish line. In reality, it’s just clearance to enter a new airspace—one with higher expectations, new scrutiny, and competitors circling the skies.

In Cleared Hot, I lay out the flight plan for what comes next. Drawing on decades of military, congressional, and private-sector experience, I reveal how companies can transform one government contract into sustained altitude, momentum, and even orbit.

This isn’t theory. It’s a proven playbook used by companies that have broken free from gravity, earned trust across the Beltway, and stayed relevant in the world’s most competitive market.

You’ll learn how to:

• Construct a self-reinforcing federal funding flywheel
• Shift from altitude to orbital momentum without stalling
• Build systems of trust that scale visibility and influence
• Achieve radar lock with policymakers, primes, and agencies
• Convert one win into a legacy of relevance and perpetual performance

In military aviation, Cleared Hot is the final call before decisive action. In business, it’s the moment when preparation, alignment, and confidence converge to put you in control of your trajectory.

Whether you’re a startup navigating your first contract or a seasoned mid-tier aiming for orbit, this book will show you how to move beyond survival, harness momentum, and win again and again.