It’s Confirmation Season—Yay or Nay?

Confirmations always make me think back to my time on active duty when I played a role in preparing senior nominees for congressional hearings. My key learning point then was that some adults are highly coachable, and ego plays a central role in their coachability.

Hearings are a bit of Kabuki theater, with elaborate choreography and stylized performances. None of the questions are a surprise to the nominee and the responses are rarely spontaneous.

The confirmation process for national security nominees in the Trump administration is as much a political litmus test as it is a procedural hurdle. Recent nominees—Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, Pam Bondi, Kash Patel, Russell Vought, and Marco Rubio—highlight the administration’s evolving strategy in shaping national security leadership.

Strategic Shift: The Recess Appointment Gambit

Initially, the administration explored securing recess appointments to bypass Senate confirmations, aiming to fast-track nominees into critical roles without enduring partisan gridlock. However, procedural roadblocks and political backlash led to abandoning this strategy, forcing nominees into the traditional confirmation process—a move that now subjects them to heightened scrutiny and extended vetting.

With hearings lasting four or more hours, few Americans have the time to spend watching anything more than the highlight reel. Here are my highlights and predictions, some obvious, some more subtle.

Partisan Divide: Expect sharp partisan lines for most nominees with each side overplaying their hand during questioning. President Trump will get nearly all of his chosen candidates on the first attempt.

Media Framing: Media narratives heavily influence public perception, impacting Senate posture. Depending on the nominee, qualifications versus personal characteristics will dominate a hearing.

Preparation Matters: Successful nominees rigorously prepare for hearings, anticipating policy challenges and personal critiques. Vought’s prior confirmation experience could offer a smoother path for example. Recall Chief Justice Roberts, who withstood cross-examination with no notes in front of him – he was highly prepared. By comparison, Defense Secretary Hagel’s disastrous hearing where he struggled with basic policy concepts, underscored the importance of thorough preparation. Some are just more naturally comfortable with the material at hand.

Nominee Predictions:

Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense: Known for his outspoken media presence and military background, Hegseth’s confirmation hinges on addressing concerns over politicization within defense leadership. Critics point to his polarizing commentary, while supporters highlight his front-line experience and veteran advocacy. He was voted out of committee on a party line vote. He will be confirmed.

Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence: Gabbard’s non-interventionist stance may appeal to isolationist factions but raises bipartisan concerns on global engagement strategy. Her past meetings with controversial world leaders and lack of substantive intelligence experience will fuel heated questioning. She will not be confirmed.

Pam Bondi for Attorney General: With a background in law enforcement and public advocacy, Bondi’s challenge lies in balancing concerns for civil liberties and domestic security measures. Her involvement in high-profile legal defenses may both bolster her credibility and attract criticism. She will be confirmed.

Kash Patel for FBI Director: Patel’s close ties to Trump and involvement in intelligence oversight could trigger extensive vetting over politicization risks. His work on controversial intelligence reports may intensify partisan opposition, though his deep understanding of intelligence operations offers a counterbalance. He will be confirmed.

Russell Vought for Director, Office of Management and Budget: Vought’s previous role in the Office of Management and Budget gives him a procedural advantage, providing familiarity with Senate processes and deep understanding of the position for which he is again nominated. However, his past policy stances and budget cuts targeting social programs could reignite old battles. He will be among the most powerful members of the administration and will be confirmed readily.

Marco Rubio for Secretary of State: Rubio’s extensive foreign policy and intelligence experience in the Senate positions him as a seasoned candidate. His hawkish stance on China and previous critiques of Trump’s foreign policy are tempered by Trump’s intent to deploy unconfirmed special envoys for key portfolios. Rubio was readily confirmed Monday with bi-partisan Senate support.

The confirmation process is more than a vote—it’s a proving ground where preparation, perception, and politics intersect. Observing how these nominees navigate this space offers a window into each nominee’s understanding of their future role and the administration’s broader strategy for national security.