GM 2023 Predictions Update

2023 Predictions Update

With the churn surrounding the presidential race and (what history will term) the infamous debate, I was reminded of some predictions I made in 2023 just after the mid-term elections. When the predictions below were published in January 2023, I also stated that predictions aren’t about being right or wrong, but about stretching your mind to consider possibilities. 

Below is what I wrote at the time, with comments and updates from me beneath each prediction.

2023 Predictions

The FY24 legislative process (that begins in Congress in Feb 2023) will stall over party disagreements on defense vs. non-defense spending; we will have a continuing resolution into calendar year 2024.

  • The FY24 budget was signed into law in March of 2024, six months late. Your government customer is struggling to choke those funds down right now.

Congress will reopen to the public, but with a cumbersome clearance process akin to that used in other federal buildings. Live meetings with Senators, Representatives and their staffs will be possible but not easy.

  • Congress reopened quietly when Republicans re-took the majority in the House. Hybrid live and remote meetings are now the norm.

Regime change in Russia will become clearer as the desired end state of the global community.

  • This original desired end state will muddle to a negotiated truce requiring long-term (and costly) peacekeeping protocols. 

The presidential race will force a reset in the two major political parties. President Biden and President Trump will both leave the race.

  • This is happening before our eyes, but not as originally imagined. President Biden’s health and vitality are now exposed. Management of him and his campaign amounts to political malpractice. His ego is now putting a 50-year legacy at risk. President Trump is a survivor of the ages. He is not presidential timber, but he is surviving like no other. The inevitable party reset will wait for now.

President Trump will be indicted for events surrounding January 6th and will ultimately receive a pardon from President Biden, something I predicted in 2019 long before January 6th.

  • Had the Attorney General moved more swiftly, the judicial outcomes might have been different. AG Garland initially deferred to the Congress’s January 6th Committee, ultimately delaying the time in which the judicial system could work under such unique circumstances. Ironically, hundreds of subordinates received jail sentences. Distasteful as it may have been, a pardon of President Trump might have changed history.

Cyber compliance will effectively filter access to government buyers, further separating the winners from those companies trying to break into federal sales.

  • Zero-trust architecture (ZTA) is the new CMMC. Costly shifts of secure data sharing to common government-restricted cloud interfaces continues to inhibit the smallest and most innovative companies. Most require third-party investment or a quick path to an equity event in order to transition into the defense industrial base (DIB). Consequently, the DIB continues to contract.

Readers will all exercise at least one contract that uses blockchain technology before the end of 2023 (I used one in 2022).

The perception of inflation bearing down on our personal economies will continue through 2023 and ease noticeably by Q-1 of 2024.

  • I mistakenly believed then-Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, when he described methods to manage “transitory inflation.” He and his team failed to understand the underlying interrelationships in a post-COVID world.

The FY25 defense budget (in development now at the Pentagon) will top $1 Trillion as the US is drawn into the global conflict in Europe and Taiwan. As with World War II, we will reach a point where the US can’t remain on the sidelines.

  • The FY25 defense bill, still under review in Congress without an agreed final topline number, presently stands at $923 Billion. We may just miss the anticipated $1 Trillion number this time. That is in part because the bill fails to keep up with the devastating impacts of inflation.

For a copy of my book, Pitching the Big Top: How to Master the 3-Ring® Circus of Federal Sales, and more information on federal sales, visit Capitol Integration.

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